As many as 267 of 453 companies from the BSE500 index are trading above their consensus price targets, according to the data compiled by Bloomberg. Not all companies in the BSE500 index are tracked by analysts.
In the coming days, unless Modi tones down the communal spiel, it will be clear that anxiety continues to drive his mind and clouds his judgment, observes Modi biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have a reason to worry because the falling rupee is putting at risk the $100 billion they have pumped into Indian equities since 2009.
Automobile manufacturers are likely to report strong numbers for the September quarter of Financial Year 2023-24 (Q2 FY24), riding on growth across segments and offset by a marginal drop in overall two-wheeler (2W) volumes. Higher average selling price (ASP) year-on-year (YoY), which was necessitated by price hikes taken by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and an improved product mix will also aid revenues and margins. Moreover, commodity prices are down on a YoY basis, leading to higher margins in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda).
Since the Budget announcement on July 5, FIIs have been busy unloading their stock.
Any correction in Indian equities is an opportunity for investors to put in money for the long term
Markets and blue chip stocks may see a downward correction in short-to-medium term.
However, experts caution that investors should not expect the big returns they got from the sector between March and September 2020.
Equity benchmarks Sensex and Nifty halted their five-day rally on Tuesday and settled deep in the red, mirroring weak global markets, with decline in index heavyweights Reliance Industries, Infosys and HDFC Bank. Despite opening with gains of over 200 points, the 30-share Sensex turned highly volatile and tumbled 709.17 points or 1.26 per cent to close at 55,776.85. During the day, the benchmark index plunged 1,067.07 points or 1.88 per cent to 55,418.95. The broader NSE Nifty also declined 208.30 points or 1.23 per cent to close at 16,663.
The country's most valuable lender HDFC Bank can perhaps no longer claim to be a favourite of foreign portfolio investors (FPIs). Two data indicators, both somewhat interconnected, point to this - the diminishing premium of HDFC Bank's American depositary receipts (ADRs) compared to local shares, and the ample investment opportunities available to FPIs in the domestic market. The ADR premium has shrunk to below 5 per cent, down from over 30 per cent in March 2021, and even lower than recent levels.
Experts expect the trend to continue in the near term.
The move to demerge the hotel business into a separate entity by ITC has brought back focus on hotel stocks, which have already seen a good run thus far in fiscal 2023-24 (FY24). Analysts believe there could be more gains in store over the next one year for the stocks in this sector, but suggest investors put in money on a correction only from a long-term perspective. Hotel stocks, according to A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital, have seen a good run as travel picked up post Covid in India. Not only have the room rents increased, the occupancy, too, has surged.
After being underweight on domestic agrochemical companies and preferring global plays, brokerages believe that the former may perform better in the quarters ahead. Domestic crop protection companies have faced multiple headwinds over the past year and a half, given high inventory costs, pricing pressures, lower realisations in the generic segment, increased stocks due to lower infestations, and demand-led hits to volumes. Some of the overhang from previous quarters was reflected in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24) as well, with aggregate revenues and operating profit for the sector down 12 per cent and 27 per cent, respectively.
India's total value of defence production breached Rs 1 trillion-mark in the fiscal year 2022-23 (FY23), up 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY). At the bourses, this has been well reflected in related-stocks from the sector as they gained considerable ground during this period. Shares of Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL), Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders, MTAR Technologies, Bharat Electronics (BEL), and Bharat Dynamics (BDL) have skyrocketed up to 160 per cent in a year, as against a 14 per cent jump in the S&P BSE Sensex.
'Earlier-than-expected tapering from the US, followed by rate hikes, and locally, a potential third wave, which mimics the second wave in terms of severity.'
Lower crude oil prices and a rally in domestic equities restricted the losses to some extent, forex dealers said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the domestic currency opened weak at 79.50 per dollar.
Among the many exits from the billionaire's club in 2022 are D Uday Kumar Reddy of Tanla Solutions (net worth down 66 per cent), Sushil Kanubhai Shah of Metropolis Healthcare (down 65.7 per cent), Vijay Shekhar Sharma of One97 Communications (down 66 per cent), and C K Birla (down 43.4 per cent).
The rupee depreciated further by 13 paise to hit a new life-time closing low of 82.30 against the US dollar on Friday as a firm American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.19, then fell further to 82.43. It finally settled at an all-time low of 82.30 against the American currency, registering a decline of 13 paise over its previous close.
On the contrary, the fall in the US markets was lower with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both declining by around 9 per cent and 6 per cent respectively, while emerging markets lost around 18 per cent during the month. Pessimism in the financial markets following the filing for bankruptcy by Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch's sell-off, the AIG bailout and perceived uncertainty around the US bailout package added to investor fears.
Stock market minnows put up a stellar show in 2021 giving returns of up to 60 per cent amid Dalal Street dream run and are likely to continue sailing northwards in the New Year too. Trumping pandemic-induced uncertainties, the Indian equity market posted stunning gains this year achieving several feats and smaller stocks benefited the most from the strong momentum. From reaching the momentous 50,000-mark in January to scaling 61,000-level in October, the BSE Sensex had an epic journey this year.
Equity indices failed to hold on to their gains in see-saw trade on Tuesday, ending in the red for the third straight session despite a tentative recovery in global equities. The rupee too bounced back from historic lows, but the overall sentiment remained risk-averse amid concerns over economic recovery in a high interest rate scenario. The 30-share BSE Sensex had a choppy start but gained momentum in mid-session trade. However, it succumbed to selling pressure towards the fag end to close 105.82 points or 0.19 per cent lower at 54,364.85. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty declined 61.80 points or 0.38 per cent to finish at 16,240.05.
There was net outflow of $7.2 billion from the Indian market in June of which $5.4 billion was from debt market triggered by global risk aversion and currency weakness, Deutsche Bank India Equity Strategy report said.
Investments by private equity and venture capital funds declined by 44 per cent to $3.7 billion in February compared to the same period a year ago, a report said on Monday. The bets by the long-term investors were 13 per cent lower when compared to the investments in the preceding month of January, the report by industry lobby Indian Venture and Alternate Capital Association and consultancy firm EY, said. "...rising global recession concerns, increasing cost of capital and mismatch in valuation expectations between sellers and investors are turning out to be major impediments in the deployment of capital," EY's partner Vivek Soni said.
Mutual funds (MFs) are betting on a turnaround in the healthcare sector to boost returns but are divided on the prospects of the information technology (IT) sector amid uncertain growth outlook. At the end of June, all of the top 20 fund houses were overweight on the healthcare sector vis--vis the sector's presence in the BSE 200 index, shows a report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFS). In the case of the IT sector, only six of the 20 fund houses had overweight positions.
Equity benchmarks fell sharply on Thursday in line with an extremely weak trend in the global markets, with the Sensex plunging 1,154.78 points in early trade. Persistent foreign fund outflows and a spurt in crude oil prices also dampened sentiment. The 30-share BSE benchmark was trading 1,154.78 points lower at 53,053.75. The broader NSE Nifty tumbled 335.65 points to 15,904.65.
The rupee on Thursday closed at its all-time low of 78.32 (provisional) against the US dollar as strong American currency and persistent foreign fund outflows weighed on investor sentiments. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 78.26 and finally settled at its all-time low 78.32, unchanged from its previous close. On Wednesday, the rupee declined by 19 paise to settle at an all-time low level of 78.32 against the US dollar.
An aggressive rate hike by the US Fed and the possibility of a recession can trigger a slide in these stocks, which will be a good opportunity to buy from a long-term perspective.
The rise of the mall in India, at a time when many in the United States are becoming debt-ridden white elephants.
Apart from bringing the margins down, the rupee fall is likely to hit the sentiments of global PE investors on India.
Sun Pharma was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding 2.37 per cent, followed by HCL Tech, Reliance Industries, IndusInd Bank and L&T.
India's equity markets are on a roller-coaster ride, after delivering spectacular returns for two consecutive years - in 2020 and 2021. The benchmark National Stock Exchange's (NSE's) Nifty50 is down 1.5 per cent in the first nine months of the current calendar year 2022 (CY22) as foreign portfolio investors sold Indian stocks due to rising bond yields in the US and across global markets, including India. The sell-off in the Indian equity markets has, however, not been broad-based and largely limited to sectors facing earnings headwinds from rising interest rates, lower commodity and energy prices, and likely economic recession in advanced economies.
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty bounced back on Thursday to close higher by nearly 1 per cent on gains in banking, IT and auto shares amid mixed global trends. The 30-share BSE Sensex rose by 443.19 points or 0.86 per cent to settle at 52,265.72. During the day, it rallied 694.26 points or 1.33 per cent to 52,516.79. The NSE Nifty advanced 143.35 points or 0.93 per cent to 15,556.65.
However, in the last few sessions, the stock of Mukesh Ambani-controlled Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), hit its 52-week low level of Rs 2269.75, and has been one of the worst performers among the Sensex pack thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23). Thus far in CY23, RIL has tanked nearly 11 per cent as compared to a fall of around 5 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. The fall in the stock, according to Gaurang Shah, senior vice-president at Geojit Financial Services is mostly due to the overall dip in the market sentiment, which in turn has impacted large-caps, including RIL.
ICICI Bank was the top laggard in the Sensex pack, falling around 3 per cent, followed by Bharti Airtel, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Finance, Kotak Bank and Axis Bank. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, Sun Pharma, M&M and HDFC were among the gainers.
'Rhetoric and chest-thumping are running high on India's recent growth record.'
'But will the giant waves developing elsewhere allow us to sail smoothly into fair winds?' asks Debashis Basu.
Gold as well as crude oil prices surged, with the latter even crossing the $103 per barrel mark. The domestic stock market opened deep in the negative territory, tumbling over 1,700 points and eroding investors' wealth by more than Rs 8 lakh crore in less than an hour of start of trade on Thursday.
'2022 has not been -- and will not be -- the kind of 2021 bull market, which lifted all boats.'
Rising crude oil prices and muted passenger traffic in the July-September quarter (second quarter, or Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24) have raised concerns about the profitability of listed aviation players. These two concerns have caused the stock of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo), the largest player in the sector, to slip by 11 per cent since its highs at the end of July. Nuvama Research expects yields to cool down in the near term due to seasonality, rising crude oil prices, and higher capacity.
Benchmark BSE Sensex and Nifty closed on a flat note after a volatile session on Wednesday profit booking in IT and realty shares negated gains in metal and oil & gas stocks. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 35.78 points or 0.06 per cent lower at 58,817.29, while the broader NSE Nifty inched 9.65 points or 0.06 per cent higher at 17,534.75. The market remained range-bound for the most part of the session as investors kept their exposure low due to weak global cues, traders said.
Improving economic sentiment, enabling policies and growth in key emerging sectors may help attract 30 per cent more private equity funds at $6 billion in the realty sector next year compared to 2020, says a report. PE investments into the realty space is expected to dropped to $4.6 billion in 2020 due to decline in the overall economic activity hit by the pandemic-driven lockdowns, according to a report by global property consultancy Savills India. The next wave of investments will be driven by warehousing, affordable housing and data centres apart from commercial office which will continue to see steady improvement, says the report.
